You know what’s great about making predictions?
People assume you’re a f*** idiot.
Gary Vaynerchuk is a great example.
He’s a business man who made a prediction about Facebook buying Instagram some years ago.
Everyone thought he was CRAZY.
And then guess what? Facebook bought Instagram, and now everyone thinks Gary’s a genius.
Irony sure does have an interesting taste to it.
On January 1st 2017 I made 9 predictions about the anime industry:
- Anime publishers will start taking online streaming seriously.
- One Punch Man season 2 will outsell season 1.
- A new Dragon Ball Z Video game will be announced.
- Yuri on Ice will set a new trend for the anime industry.
- Possibility of YouTube becoming an alternative to anime streaming sites.
- Anime DVD sales will continue to decline worldwide.
- The anime industry will be worth ¥2 trillion Yen.
- The Manga industry will be overshadowed by the anime industry.
- The amount of anime shows on legal streaming sites will double.
Here’s the original post: 9 Predictions For The Anime Industry In 2017
Not long after publishing, there were tweets similar to this:
“9 Big Predictions For The Anime Industry In 2017”
Right let’s see how bad this is *clicks* …really pic.twitter.com/hn7GYtSxro
— Jaki (@Jakiba_) January 9, 2017
Link pls. Need to point and laugh too.
— build @ hyper japan saturday (@buildknuckle) January 9, 2017
Of course it wasn’t all negative either.
Out of the 9 predictions I made, 6 of them have come true.
6 Anime Predictions I Made That Came True In 2017:
1. The Anime Industry Is Now Worth ¥2.9 Trillion YEN
Originally I predicted the anime industry would be worth ¥2 trillion yen.
But it looks like my expectations were exceeded.
According to News Sources: NHK News World (link deleted), the industry’s reached a new milestone of ¥2.9 trillion yen.
A lot of this high growth is because of anime movies like Your Name, which did over $355 million dollars.
And around $11.8 billion in sales is thanks to the overseas market like US, UK, Europe, among other countries.
So the industry’s moving in the right direction.
2. A new Dragon Ball Z video game HAS been announced
Originally I predicted there would be an announcement for a new DBZ game. With DBS influences.
Personally this was expected, but there’s nothing like seeing the truth become reality.
Dragon Ball FighterZ is set to release in February 2018.
The platforms it’ll be available on are:
- PlayStation 4.
- Xbox One.
- Microsoft Windows.
And it’ll be running on the impressive: Unreal Graphics Engine.
3. The Amount Of Anime Shows Have DOUBLED On Legal Streaming Sites
One example I used was Crunchyroll.
It’s hard to find the exact number of shows Crunchyroll has. But it’s somewhere between 200-400+.
This year alone Crunchyroll has released an obnoxious amount of shows on its platform.
And it looks to have doubled in a visible way. Which is easy to see if you follow them.
And then there’s Netflix. A company that announced they’ll be investing $billions into new anime TV shows.
They also plan to release 30+ anime shows in 2018.
Compare that to what Netflix did back in 2016, and it’s clear to see they’ve at least doubled their efforts.
And then there’s Amazon with their Anime Strike service.
It’s not popular among fans. In fact most people seem to HATE it.
But it’s clear amazon has made a huge push in 2017 for anime streaming. Despite it having a long journey ahead of itself to get things right.
4. The Anime Industry will overshadow the Manga industry
In case you don’t know, the Manga industry has been declining for some time now.
And it’s dropped even further in 2017 for some publishers.
As is the case with anime DVD’S, Manga print sales will continue dropping.
Because it’s an old way of marketing that no longer works in the 21st century.
And when you compare it to the rising sales of anime (Your Name, A Silent Voice, etc,) it’s clear why.
More people enjoy anime videos vs reading Manga. Because you get to experience “more”.
Also, internet traffic is said to be 80% video by 2019.
When you do the math, Manga being overshadowed by anime shouldn’t be a surprise at all.
Especially with streaming on the rise.
5. Anime DVD Sales will continue to decline worldwide
Image courtesy of website: Deviant Art.
To even think anime dvd’s have a chance of making a comeback is naïve and foolish.
Old ways of doing things don’t work in 2017.
Things change, people change, and the way we do things changes.
Don’t take my word for it, the 3 article headlines below speak for themselves:
6. Anime publishers will start taking online streaming seriously
This point was reflected back in prediction #3. Where I mentioned anime shows have doubled on streaming sites.
The fact is even though there are plenty of publishers who welcome online streaming, some don’t.
Which is why anime DVD’S are still heavily invested in, despite their obvious decline.
And not everybody is 100% on board with streaming, and distribution is poor at the moment.
With that said, it seems slowly but surely this is starting to change as I unsurprisingly predicted.
Anime predictions I was wrong about:
- YouTube red becoming a possible alternative to anime streaming sites.
- One Punch Man outselling season 1 (it’s still not released).
- Yuri On Ice setting a new trend for anime.
So basically 66% of my predictions came true. or 6 out of 9.
Not too shabby.
I’ll probably do another “prediction” post when 2018 arrives.
It’ll be fun to see next years results of what I predict will come true in the anime industry.